In September last year we published an article questioning the ability of the current flood defence system around Rye to adequately protect us from the effects of some of the changes in weather patterns that we have been seeing over the last year or two.
The following week, the chairman of REACT (the Rye Emergency Action Community Team) , Anthony Kimber, suggested that the Environment Agency (EA) had been working well to protect the town against the possibility of tidal surges under normal conditions and that work on the East bank of the Rother – scheduled for 2019 – would enhance the protection.
All well and good, but what are “normal”conditions? Indeed, given the recent events in the North of England and in Scotland, is there any longer such a thing as “normal”? The EA, itself, has admitted that it got its projections – on which the protection of many vulnerable areas is based – wrong.
And if they, with all their sophisticated computerised modelling and expert analysts can not get it right, then how can anyone foresee what weather might emerge over the next few years.
Last weekend (and since then) the EA has issued flood alerts for the rivers Brede and Tillingham with particular reference to parts of Winchelsea and also Tilling Green estate – this, in spite of substantial work on sluices, storm doors and drain flaps on both rivers and their tributaries. The enemy, it would seem, is no longer just the sea in front of us, but now also the river systems behind, and to the side of us.
We have been fortunate in the past that the Atlantic weather systems have largely dissipated by the time they reach the Eastern half of the country. But the unseasonably mild weather of the last few weeks is a sign that our weather is now being influenced by a more Southerly airflow, putting Rye far closer to the front line than it has been before (or at least, since the Great Storm of 1287!).
The next very high tide is due on January 11 and the current 10-day forecast suggests that mild temperatures will still be with us and there will be some more rain – although possibly not the same level of rainfall as we have seen recently. For the moment, therefore, we should be safe.
We must all be aware however that, if the weather patterns continue in their current direction, at some point, whether this year or next, a hide tide, high river water levels and a possible tidal surge in the Channel WILL all arrive all at the same time and the fact that our ancestors had the good sense to build the central part of Rye well out of harm’s way will be of no comfort to the rest of us as we take to the rescue boats.
Photo: John Minter